Toys R Us in Silver Spring Closing: Economics of Temporary Stores

Last June a Toys R US express opened in downtown Silver Spring. Silver Spring Singular reported on the opening last year (link)

From the link
"What is Toys R Us Express? From what I was able to find, it is the name used by TRU for smaller, temporary holiday stores that have done well enough to justify their continued existence into the new year. Of course, as this location is being opened up in July, their plans appear to be to operate this location as a year-round store."

So it looks like sales didn't justify their existence. They do have a sign that says see you next season, so perhaps we can expect the Toys R US express store to open right after the Halloween costume shop closes. Then the express can close again for a Super Bowl TV store or Valentines flower shop, which is open until a snow cone stand comes in sometime around April.


Finally, thanks for Silver Spring Singular for the recent link. I'm going to be upping the Silver Spring content here, but balancing it out with stuff that non-locals will find more interesting than Silver Spring's most famous econ related native (Ben Stein).

7 Years and No Itch, Anniversary in Silver Spring

Happy Anniversary to my wife, Marie! Last night to celebrate we got a babysitter and planned an evening out in Silver Spring.

Following the advice of Spousonomics (a good new blog on the economics of being a spouse), we tried to do something different and active (see their post on making date night count). So we headed over to the new ice skating rink in downtown Silver Spring. As we approached we heard a loud alarm. We found a car alarm just 50 ft from the rink was going off (boo negative externalities). Seeing (hearing?) no end in site to the alarm we headed to the local irish pub (McGinity's) for a pint of Guinness the beer from our first date. After a big bowl of stew and a pint, we checked out the swing dancing in the next room.

It turned out to be free and about our style (5 couples or so and varying levels of skill). So I spun my wife around the dance floor. So while we have been dancing many time before, we haven't been in too long.

So it was a good night and I'm looking forward to many more.

AEA interview advice from someone who has done it twice

For those of you who are going to Denver this weekend to interview for your first post graduate school economics job I wish you luck. Having done the economics job market twice I wrote up a few pointers for interviewing at a non-R1 school some apply to both R1 and non-R1.

Quick story. The job market guide written by John Cawley suggested " Bring granola bars or other portable snacks with you in your briefcase and eat between interviews." I was amazed how many people followed this advice exactly and brought granola bars.

So if you see a nervous looking young economist eating a granola bar wearing a dark suit in Denver this weekend wish them luck!

Will Mexican and Brazilian Welfare Programs Work Elsewhere?

The NY Times Fixes recent column by Tina Rosenberg (link) was about conditional cash transfers (CCTs), programs that pay cash to mothers in poor families who send their children to school and go in for health check ups. CCTs have been very successful in Brazil and Mexico at increasing school enrollment and had mild positive impacts on children health.

A couple questions in my mind remain. In the long term does sending more children to high school in Brazil and Mexico actually lead to lower poverty? It will be hard to test this since in both countries basically everyone who is poor is now receiving payments from the government (including 90% of the coffee growers in yesterdays post). What happens when there is a large increase in schooling for a generation?
Do they get jobs that use that education?

I also think that health benefits in the article are a little over stated. One of the best measures of children's health is their height and both programs seem to have little to no improvement in children's height, and one study even found Brazil's CCT decreased children's height (see previous post)

Now turning away from Brazil and Mexico, which are borderline developed/developing country. I think the big question is what influence can CCTs have in poorer countries. The Times article makes a good point.

If conditional cash transfer programs are to work properly, many more schools and health clinics are needed. But governments can’t always keep up with the demand — and sometimes they can only keep up by drastically reducing quality. If this is a problem for medium-income countries like Brazil and Mexico, imagine the challenge in Honduras or Tanzania.

In my experience with a Honduran CCT, which showed no impact on schooling or children's health. The program also failed to deliver on promised school and hospital construction. Additionally even the Nicaraguan CCT that is often held up as example of a successes story increasing school enrollment more than 20%, was terminated due to lack of funding.

Although, I don't have evidence of it, since there haven't been enough studies (for example in terms of height the influence of only 8 or 10 CCTs has been tested), I'm guessing that part of the success of Brazil and Mexico is the government capacity they have.

Like microcredit, I've come to the belief that CCTs are generally good when well run (a big if), but I don't think they are a magic bullet.

See my previous posts on conditional cash transfers here.

h/t to Dan for the article

The Best Way to Help Mexican Coffee Farmers

The above graph ((click on it to make it bigger) is from my most recent journal article on fair trade coffee farming in Southern Mexico. The graph shows the income sources for our survey of 850 coffee farming households. In short these households get as much in government subsidies as they do in coffee income. And of all the income sources remittances are by far the biggest. Only 35% of households receive them, but they represent something like 35% of income. In short we find that Fair Trade coffee farming can boost income around 5-10%, while sending one person to the US can double income.

If you are interested you can read the paper here

Thanks to my friend and loyal reader Lowell for passing on a related link that also shows migration can dwarf other development policies.

About my new links

I have edited my links to reflect what I'm reading lately or intend to read more of in 2011. Here is a quick description on each blog. All blogs are highly recommended!

I include links to my professional web page and papers. If you want a copy of a paper behind a pay wall send me an e-mail.


Aidwatchers: Bill Easterly is a must read for people working or planning to work in International development
Chris Blattman: Place to go for thoughts on development, Africa focus
Economists Do It With Models: Jodi Beggs is one of the funniest economist out there
and world famous for arranging/performing the economics of Hannukah song
Freakonomics: Get your econ freak on with a variety of economists
James Manley ReseconTowson: My buddy and colleague provides insight on resource and environmental econ
Marginal Revolution: Full of great stories and always a new post.
Megan McArdle: Favorite blogging journalist covering financial news
NPR Health Blog: My old neighbor Scott on all things health
Seth Godin: Marketing insights daily
Silver Spring Singular: If it happens in Silver Spring it is there
Spousonomics: Linking marriage and economics. Buy their book in Feb 2011!
The Sports Economist: Best place for Sports Econ on the Web
Towson University: Hey they pay me, but I should mention the views here don't reflect that of Towson

Qdoba vs Chipotle

-Picture from Green Eggs Marketing

On New Years Day I walked to downtown Silver Spring and in front of the Chipotle (which was closed for New Years) was a man handing out coupons for 2 for 1 burritos from Qdoba that is located 2 blocks away.

As economist I love this scene. It shows there is no burrito monopoly. It demonstrates the ice cream on the beach problem, where on a long beach two ice cream sellers should set up next to each other (see this old post)

Qdoba's 2 for 1 deal is also great news for those on the burrito diet!