Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Early Voting and Lower Turnout

Megan McArdle describes a recent study from the University of Wisconsin that early voting leads to lower voter turnout. At first this may seem surprising. Early voting should allow people to vote when they have lower opportunity costs and increase turnout. For example I voted on a day I wasn't working instead of today when I'm in class most of the day. However, by voting early I wasn't wearing my I voted sticker on election day. The analysis suggest that by allowing early voting election day becomes a smaller deal and less people vote.

Now for predictions. My favorite midterm election prediction goes to Justin Wolfers over at The Freakonomics Blog. Instead of saying “World complicated. Highly-paid experts often wrong.” or hedging his bets saying it depends. Wolfers predicts the dems will hold onto both houses of congress. He predicts even though he indicates the probability of it happening could be around 1 in 5 or less.

Why does he do this, because we give higher rewards and respect to people who make predictions if they are right and go against the common judgement.

So let's go with Dems still +10 in the house and +4 in the Senate. If I'm right, like Wolfers I'll point people to this post.

If I'm wrong well then..... LOOK OVER THERE A SHINY OBJECT!

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1 comment:

Britt said...

Sir, if you think the American electorate can be distracted by so simple a thing as a...